Comments on Fingrid's scenarios
"Electricity to data":
- From growth in demand to growth in production.
- Eastern Finland was mentioned, but it was not specified on what scale.
- The likelihood of implementation is relatively good.
"From hydrogen to mainstream":
- From growth in demand to growth in production
- Growth in hydrogen and P2X production playing a big role. The National Hydrogen Strategy will make Finland the leading hydrogen economy in Europe. In this scenario, Gasgrid's role in synergies must be taken into account.
- The role of eastern Finland in this scenario is significant, but this is not stated.
- to the document.
- The highest probability of realisation.
"Strength in Stability":
- Moderate growth in industry, no new sectors.
- Moderate likelihood of implementation.
"A notable development":
- A combination of the above scenarios, in moderation.
- The likelihood of realisation uncertain.
On the potential of the electricity system
It is good to see that the potential of the electricity system in terms of generation and demand is well understood. We would also like to highlight the calculations made by LUT University, which show a potential of up to 1650 TWh of onshore wind power and 1300 TWh of solar power. These figures are particularly significant and could give room for even higher scenarios for the development of the electricity system. For now, however, the scenarios look relatively optimistic.
In addition, the potential created by the hydrogen economy must be better taken into account in each scenario. It would be good to better take into account that the total amount of bio-based carbon dioxide from different point sources across the country is now about 28 Mt. Further, the electricity required to process it and hydrogen into, for example, methanol is estimated at around 190 TWh and these figures would be important to consider when considering scale.
Observations on developments in eastern Finland
The electricity system visions did not take too detailed a view on the regional development of the country's grid, but taking into account, for example, the potential of the hydrogen economy as described above, it would be useful to consider the strengths of the different regions in more detail.
Several factors need to be taken into account in the development of eastern Finland:
- The potential for wind power is significant and wind conditions are good, also taking into account the fact that conditions in different wind zones balance and disperse production, also ensuring production during peak demand periods.
- The decentralisation of wind power and electricity grids has advantages in terms of security and defence.
- The attractiveness of investment is higher in eastern Finland, because in the west, investment cannibalises each other by trying to invest in too small an area.
- In addition, there is a lot of uninhabited land in the east and north, and there are also solutions for energy production through solar power complementing wind power.
- Solutions for wind farms planned near the eastern border can be found relatively quickly in cooperation with the Defence Forces.
- The potential for hydrogen and P2X production is significant, as almost 2/3 of the country's total bio-CO2 point sources are in the East, especially in pulp mills.
- The development of the hydrogen economy also offers great opportunities for building gas infrastructure in the East to complement the efficiency of the energy system.
- The development of the energy system in eastern Finland will attract clean transition investments in production and consumption, improving the security and vitality of the region, employment, entrepreneurship and the economy of municipalities; the whole of Finland will benefit from the growth potential that the hydrogen economy can offer.
